Disease-Course Adapting Machine Learning Prognostication Models in Elderly Patients Critically Ill With COVID-19: Multicenter Cohort Study With External Validation

Christian Jung   ¹ , MD, PhD ;   Behrooz Mamandipoor   ² , BSc ;   Jesper Fjølner   ³ , MD ;   Raphael Romano Bruno   ¹ , MD ;   Bernhard Wernly   ⁴ , MD, PhD ;   Antonio Artigas   ⁵ , MD ;   Bernardo Bollen Pinto   ⁶ ;   Joerg C Schefold   ⁷ ;   Georg Wolff   ¹ , MD ;   Malte Kelm   ¹ , MD ;   Michael Beil   ⁸ ;   Sigal Sviri   ⁸ , MHA ;   Peter V van Heerden   ⁹ , MD, PhD ;   Wojciech Szczeklik   ¹⁰ ;   Miroslaw Czuczwar   ¹¹ ;   Muhammed Elhadi   ¹² ;   Michael Joannidis   ¹³ ;   Sandra Oeyen   ¹⁴ ;   Tilemachos Zafeiridis   ^{15 †} ;   Brian Marsh   ¹⁶ ;   Finn H Andersen   ^{17, 18} ;   Rui Moreno   ^{19, 20} , MD, PhD ;   Maurizio Cecconi   ²¹ ;   Susannah Leaver   ²² ;   Dylan W De Lange   ²³ ;   Bertrand Guidet   ^{24, 25} ;   Hans Flaatten   ^{26, 27} ;   Venet Osmani   ² , PhD

¹ Division of Cardiology, Pulmonology and Vascular Medicine, Medical Faculty, Heinrich-Heine-University Duesseldorf, University Hospital Duesseldorf, Duesseldorf, Germany

² Fondazione Bruno Kessler Research Institute, Trento, Italy

³ Department of Intensive Care, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark

⁴ Department of Anaesthesiology, Paracelsus Medical University, Salzburg, Austria

⁵ Department of Intensive Care Medicine, CIBER Enfermedades Respiratorias, Corporacion Sanitaria Universitaria Parc Tauli, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Sabadell, Spain

⁶ Department of Acute Medicine, Geneva University Hospitals, Geneva, Switzerland

⁷ Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Inselspital, Universitätsspital, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland

⁸ Department of Medical Intensive Care, Hadassah University Medical Center, Faculty of Medicine, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel

⁹ Department of Anesthesia, Intensive Care and Pain Medicine, Hadassah Medical Center and Faculty of Medicine, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel

¹⁰ Center for Intensive Care and Perioperative Medicine, Jagiellonian University Medical College, Krakow, Poland

¹¹ Second Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care, Medical University of Lublin, Lublin, Poland

¹² Faculty of Medicine, University of Tripoli, Tripoli, Libyan Arab Jamahiriya

¹³ Division of Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Medical University Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria

¹⁴ Department of Intensive Care 1K12IC, Ghent University Hospital, Ghent, Belgium

¹⁵ Intensive Care Unit, General Hospital of Larissa, Larissa, Greece

¹⁶ Mater Misericordiae University Hospital, Dublin, Ireland

¹⁷ Department of Anaesthesia and Intensive Care, Ålesund Hospital, Alesund, Norway

¹⁸ Department of Circulation and Medical Imaging, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway

¹⁹ Hospital de São José, Centro Hospitalar Universitário de Lisboa Central, Lisbon, Portugal

²⁰ Faculdade de Ciências Médicas de Lisboa, Nova Medical School - Faculdade de Ciências Médicas, Universidade da Beira Interior, Lisbon, Portugal

²¹ Department of Anaesthesia, IRCCS Instituto Clínico Humanitas, Humanitas University, Milan, Italy

²² General Intensive Care, St George's University Hospitals, NHS Foundation Trust, London, United Kingdom

²³ Department of Intensive Care Medicine, University Medical Center, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Belgium

²⁴ Épidémiologie Hospitalière Qualité et Organisation des Soins, Institut Pierre Louis d’Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, UMR_S 1136, Paris, France

²⁵ Service de Réanimation Médicale, Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, Hôpital Saint-Antoine, Paris, France

²⁶ Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway

²⁷ Department of Anesthesia and Intensive Care, Haukeland University Hospital, Bergen, Norway

†deceased