Predicting Intensive Care Transfers and Other Unforeseen Events: Analytic Model Validation Study and Comparison to Existing Methods

Brandon C Cummings   ^{1 *} , MHI ;   Sardar Ansari   ^{1 *} , PhD ;   Jonathan R Motyka   ¹ , MSc ;   Guan Wang   ¹ , MSc ;   Richard P Medlin Jr   ¹ , MSIS, MD ;   Steven L Kronick   ¹ , MSc, MD ;   Karandeep Singh   ^{1, 2, 3, 4} , MMSc, MD ;   Pauline K Park   ^{1, 5} , MD ;   Lena M Napolitano   ^{1, 5} , MD ;   Robert P Dickson   ^{1, 2, 6} , MD ;   Michael R Mathis   ^{1, 7} , MD ;   Michael W Sjoding   ^{1, 2} , MD ;   Andrew J Admon   ^{1, 2, 4} , MPH, MSc, MD ;   Ross Blank   ^{1, 7} , MD ;   Jakob I McSparron   ^{1, 2} , MD ;   Kevin R Ward   ^{1, 4, 8} , MD ;   Christopher E Gillies   ^{1, 4} , PhD

¹ Michigan Center for Integrative Research In Critical Care, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States

² Department of Internal Medicine, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States

³ Department of Learning Health Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States

⁴ Michigan Institute for Data Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States

⁵ Department of Surgery, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States

⁶ Department of Microbiology & Immunology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States

⁷ Department of Anesthesiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States

⁸ Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States

*these authors contributed equally